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Over/Under Market (Football betting strategy)

Over/Under Market Betting Strategy

There are several factors that both bookmakers and bettors look when they are deciding about potential bets in the Over/Under goals market. There are several strategies that you can play in Over/Under market. In this article, we will write about simple Over/Under goals strategy that can be used in football, but also in basketball (Over/Under points), where it showed a lot of promising results. If you understand how to play this strategy and implement it right, you can expect a steady profit from sports betting.

Finding the Best Possible Bet

In order to implement this Over/Under strategy correctly you will need to do proper research of your possible selections. You need to find fresh stats and data about teams and their performances. On the internet, you can find several beneficial websites that will provide you with data about the best possible leagues and teams for Over 2.5 or Under 2.5 game.

It is important to underline that this strategy isn’t suitable just for Over 2.5 goals market as many bettors tend to think. There is plenty of value in Under 2.5 goal market as well if you know how to filter the information properly.

For example, at the moment German Bundesliga average 3.64 goals per game, England Premier League 2.77 goals per game and Spain Primera 2.47 goals per game. As you may see, every league has something different to offer and, this stats are just a top of an iceberg.

This season best leagues for Over 2.5 goals market are Scotland Highland League with 4.45 goals per game, Denmark U17 League with 4.39 goals per game and Germany Oberliga Bremen with 4.35 goals per game.

On the other hand, leagues that are perfect for Under 2.5 goalsmarket is Morocco elite 2 with 1.52 goals per game, Montenegro 1stLeague with 1.60 goals per game and Italy Serie C with 1.87 goals per game.

As you may see those stats will give you head start. Now it is time to cross-reference this information with team stats. When you look at team stats, it is important to look for a home and away record of each and every team you want to play, as many teams deploy different tactical approach when they play at home and when they play away.

What odds should you accept?

After you found the best possible games to bet on, it is time to determine are the odds worth betting on.

You need to convert probability into decimal odds and determine is it a selected game worth your time and money. Calculating probability into decimal odds is rather easy.

Decimal odds = 100 / probability

So if your bookie gives you 1.80 odds on Over 2.5 goals, it means that bookie thinks there is 55.55% probability that the game will end with more than 2 goals.

Of course, this formula doesn’t guarantee that you will select a winning bet. It merely helps you determine if the odds are worth playing on them.

When you find the game where the probability is higher in your calculation than odds bookie offers it is a perfect game to place a bet. The same strategy is used for Over 2.5 goals market and for Under 2.5 goals market.

With proper research, you will be able to find value bets that will make you a nice profit in the long-term no doubt.

Is this Strategy Profitable?

Of course, it is. If you follow the basic rules of sports bettingand show a great level of discipline, this strategy will make you constant long-term profit. This strategy is for single bets only. Single bets are better than combo or accumulator bets. They are safer for your bank, and they will make you a consistant profit.

If you do research right, you will be able to predict how many goals will be scored in every game. Goals are a constant factor in the game of football. That is the best thing about the goals market. You don’t care who will win you just predict how many goals will be scored.

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Single Bet vs Combo Bet

“Single bet” or “Combo bet”?

In this article, we will write about all the advantages and disadvantages so you can decide what style of betting suits you best.

Pros and Cons of Combo Bets

The most important advantage of combo bets is the possibility to win big amounts of money with a relatively small stake. That is not possible with single bets.

For example, if you find four suitable bets with some nice odds (for example 2.00) and decide to make a small stake (for example 10 Euro), you can win 3.200 Euro, while if you play those four bets in single selections, potential win is “just” 800 Euro with 400 Euro stake. So the difference here is obvious.

Also, when you place a combo bet, the margin is slightly lower than when you place a single bet selection.

Combo Bet example
Combo Bet example

So with proven and successful strategy bettor can make a significant profit playing combo bet selections. There are several types of combo bets, doubles (two selections), trebles (three selections), while all other combo bets with four or more selections are called – 4, 5, 6-fold.

It is essential to know one thing. If you miss just one selection from your Multiple bet, you lose entire stake. Even if you are master combo sports bettor, you need to know that you will win rarely, but when you win, you will win big.

Pros and Cons of Single Bets

In our humble opinion, for long-term profit it is better to play single selections. We will try to show that on an example as always.

If you have two games that you like and want to bet one, it is much better to play two single bets than one double combo bet. Let us assume both selections are with 2.00 odds.

Single Bet example
Single Bet example

If you play two single bets with 100 Euro stake, your total stake is 200 Euro, and potential profit is 200 Euro (100 Euro * 2.00 = 200 Euro – 100 Euro stake).

If you play double bet with 100 euro stake, your total stake is 100 Euro, and potential profit is 300 euro (100 Euro * 4.00 = 400 euro – 100 euro stake).

At first glance, it seems like a good idea to play double instead of two single bets, as you will risk lower amount and potential win is twice bigger. That is the common mistake many novice bettors make. On the long term, it is better to risk more and to win lower amount than to play combo bets.

Imagine that you managed to predict correctly just one of the two selections. Playing single bets, you will not lose any money, as winning bet will cover your loss on a lost bet. But if you decided to play double, you will lose an entire stake in that situation.

Also, sometimes different bookmakers have different odds on the same game and same selection. If you play combo bets, you need to place all the selections at one bookmaker, while playing single bets you can choose bookmaker with best possible odds for every single selection, and that way you will increase your chances to make a long-term profit by using the best possible odds.

All professional bettors prefer to play single bets over combo selections because that is the only proven way to be profitable in the long run from sports betting. Still, there is a number of bettors that prefer to play small odds combo bets, but those bettors are not right. Bookmakers love those kinds of players as they bring profit to the sportsbooks. Plain and simple, playing multiple selections lower your chances to be profitable.

Conclusion

Everybody can hit combo bet with high odds from time to time. That is the fact. But single bets will make you profit, while combo betswill give you nothing but a headache. Single bet allows you to choose sportsbook with best possible odds, with lowest margins, and also protects you from “only one miss” on combo ticket.

You need to know that sports betting is a complex discipline. Professional bettors build their bank for years, and they wait for the best games, with best odds and they play only the single bets. You need to be patient and have a great level of discipline in order to make a profit from sports betting.

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Advanced mathematical predictions

The combination:

Advanced mathematical predictions and football experts tips

Finally, there is an approach that can really get you winning! Math is all around us, helping us making tough decisions. Analysing the statistics and calculating the probabilities, gives us great predictions, but something is missing. So, here are our football experts, to add the final touches and offer you the best football predictions out there!!!

The algorithm:

Data mining of the football data for 200+ leagues.

Complex algorithms – part of the Artificial intelligence world.

Using the Probability theory – the mathematical foundation for statistics.

Probability distributions.

Constantly improving and evolving.

Analysing numerous factors influencing the outcome of a football match:

  • Past results
  • Head to head games
  • Home/Away performance
  • Scored/Condeded goals
  • Weather conditions affects
  • Form distributions
  • Standard deviations

The experts:

  • Extensive betting experience
  • Football tipping experience
  • Writing match previews experience
  • Thoroughly analysing all the factors
  • Sensing teams motivation, match approach, mental strength
  • Strong organizational, mathematical, analytical skills
  • Bearing in mind even the most insignificant factors, which might influence the game
  • Experience with different betting systems and predicting strategies
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Arbitrage Betting

The basic principle of arbitrage betting is a simple one.

The idea is to place a series of bets on all the possible outcomes of an event, using a combination of odds and stakes that ensures you are guaranteed to make a profit regardless of what the actual outcome is.

You might think this is too good to be true, but arbitrage betting is a real strategy that does work. In the right circumstances it is entirely possible to make guaranteed returns from your bets. It’s not quite as simple as it sounds though. Many bettors have made the mistake of thinking that this betting strategy is an easy route to untold riches, but the reality is that it takes a lot of hard work and patience.

In this article we’ll explore arbitrage betting in more detail. We’ll explain how it works and why it’s possible, and also teach you all the calculations you will need to know when using this strategy. We’ll also look at its advantages and disadvantages, provide some tips and advice for using this strategy, and answer some frequently asked questions about arbitrage betting.

How Arbitrage Betting Works

As we’ve already explained, arbitrage betting involves placing bets on all the possible outcomes of an event in order to guarantee a profit. In a tennis match, for example, you would place two bets – one on each player to win. In a soccer match you would place three bets – one on each team to win plus one on the draw.

You’re probably already aware that placing such bets with a single bookmaker would actually guarantee a loss, not a profit. This is because of the way that bookmakers set the odds to give themselves a built in profit margin. For a simple example, let’s imagine there was an upcoming tennis match where a bookmaker thought both players had an equal chance of winning. They might set the odds as follows.

Bookmaker A
Andy Murray v Roger Federer
Andy Murray to Win
1.91
Roger Federer to Win
1.91

A winning $100 bet at odds of 1.91 would return a total of $191.00, including the initial $100 stake. So if you bet $100 on each of the two players, you’d be wagering a total of $200 to get a return of $191.00 regardless of who won. This would represent a loss of $9.

Arbitrage betting is therefore not as simple as just betting on all the possible outcomes of an event. If it was that easy, everyone would be doing it and there wouldn’t be any bookmakers in business. What you have to do is find opportunities where the odds with different bookmakers make guaranteed profits a possibility. Such opportunities are often referred to as arbs.

Using the same hypothetical tennis match as above, it’s possible that another bookmaker would take a different view on the likely outcome. They might make Murray the favorite to win, and set their odds as follows.

Bookmaker B
Andy Murray v Roger Federer
Andy Murray to Win
1.70
Roger Federer to Win
2.20

This has created an arbitrage opportunity. We’ll show you some calculations you can use to highlight when an arb exists later, but please just take our word for it at this stage. You could make a guaranteed profit by betting on Murray with “Bookmaker A” and Federer with “Bookmaker B”.

It’s important to note at this stage that you have to work out the optimal stakes when arbitrage betting. We’ll shortly show you the necessary calculations for this too, but we’ll keep it relatively simple for now and use some round figures. The two bets you would want to make here are $107 on Murray at 1.91 and $93 on Federer at 2.20, again for a total of $200 of wagered.

Arbitrage Betting Returns Example

As you can see, you would make a profit here regardless of which player wins. Although this is only a hypothetical example, it should help you to understand just how arbitrage betting works. We’ve already mentioned that similar opportunities do occur for real, and we’ll now explain why.

Why Arbitrage Betting Is Possible

Arbitrage betting is only possible when the right circumstances present themselves. The odds available on sporting events regularly vary from one bookmaker to another, but there needs to be a sufficient differencefor an arb to exist. Such a difference will typically occur for one of the following two reasons.

  • Bookmakers taking differing views on the likely outcome of an event.
  • Bookmakers adjusting their odds to create a balanced book.

The first reason is the one we referred to in our example above. Bookmakers tend to set their initial oddsbased on their views of what they think will happen in an event, so it is perfectly possible that two bookmakers will set different odds if they have different opinions about how an event is likely to turn out. If their opinions are different enough that there is a significant disparity in the odds that they offer, then an arbitrage opportunity may well exist.

Although a bookmaker’s initial odds may reflect their views about an event, they will subsequently adjust those odds based on the wagers that they take. If they take a lot of wagers on one particular outcome, they will almost certainly reduce the odds on that outcome. At the same time they will increase the odds on the other outcome (or outcomes). This helps them to reduce their exposure to risk, and it can also lead to a notable difference between the odds available at different bookmakers.

There are some other reasons why arbs occur, but the two mentioned here are easily the most common.

How To Find Arbs

One of the biggest challenges you will face when using an arbitrage betting strategy is actually finding the right opportunities. Although they do occur reasonably frequently, they don’t usually last very long. There are lots of bettors looking for them so they generally get spotted very quickly. As soon as a few bets have been placed to take advantage of an arb, the chances are that the odds will have changed enough for the opportunity to no longer exist.

You have three primary options when it comes to finding arbs. These are as follows.

  • Websites and forums
  • Software and alert services
  • Your own research
Websites & Forums

There are several websites that advertise arbitrage opportunities as and when they appear, and some forums where users can post them up when they identify them. Using such websites and forums can be a relatively easy way to find arbs, but there are some downsides.

Firstly, you won’t generally find the most lucrative arbs this way. People tend to keep those to themselves. You also have to be quick to take advantage of the ones that you do find. If there are lots of other people using the same sites and forums, and there usually are, then the opportunities are likely to disappear quite quickly.

Software & Alert Services

There is tracking software you can purchase that will find arbs for you, and alert services you can subscribe to that will automatically notify you of them. These are relatively easy options, and very simple to use. You don’t have to do much work yourself other than place the actual bets. They will cost you money though, and you may suffer from the same problem of the opportunities not lasting long.

Your Own Research

Doing your own research is probably the best option for finding arbs. It requires the most work, but the rewards can be much greater. By finding your own opportunities you can hopefully take full advantage of them before anyone else is aware of them. You may also be able to find the more valuable arbs which don’t generally get advertised, although this depends on how much time you can dedicate to your research and how quickly you can react to any opportunities you find.

The main downside to doing your own research is that you’ll have to do all the necessary calculations yourself too. These calculations are not too complicated, but you do need to fully understand them and be able to apply them quickly.

Calculations Required for Arbitrage Betting

There are two calculations you need to do when arbitrage betting. The first calculation is simply for determining whether an opportunity exists, while the second calculation is for determining the size of the bets you should place. There is also a third calculation you can use to work out what your overall profit should be.

Determining Whether an Arb Exists

Please note that this calculation is based on using decimal odds. If you are working with odds in a different format.

To determine whether an arb exists or not you must first find the best odds available on each of the possible outcomes of an event. You must then apply the following calculation to each set of odds, with the result expressed as a percentage figure. This result for each set of odds is known as the individual arbitrage percentage, or IAP.

(1 / Odds) x 100 = IAP

Using the odds for the hypothetical tennis match we mentioned earlier, the calculations would therefore be as follows.

IAP for Andy Murray = (1 / 1.91) x 100 = 52.36%
IAP for Roger Federer = (1 / 2.20) x 100 = 45.45%

You must then add those two IAPs together. Continuing with the same example, the calculation would be as follows.

52.36% + 45.45% = 97.81%

If the result is less than 100% then an arbitrage opportunity exists. In this case we can see that an opportunity does exist, as the result is 97.81%. This is referred to as the total arbitrage percentage, or TAP.

The lower the percentage, the greater the potential profit. Ideally you want to look for 98% or less, to make the profits worthwhile, but technically anything below 100% is workable. Any result of 100% or greater means that there is no arbitrage opportunity.

Calculating Bet Sizes

As we demonstrated in our earlier example, you have to get the bet sizes right to make a profit when arbitrage betting. In order to do this you have to use the following calculation, where investment is the total sum that you are looking to stake on the arb.

(Investment x IAP) / TAP = Required Stake

For our hypothetical match between Murray and Federer, assuming an investment of $200, the calculations would look like this.

Required Stake for Murray = ($200 x 52.36%) / 97.81% = $107.06
Required Stake for Federer = ($200 x 45.45%) / 97.81% = $92.94

Placing the two bets using these stakes should guarantee the same profit, regardless of the outcome. Let’s see if that’s the case.

Arbitrage Betting Returns Example 2

There’s a very minor difference of a single cent, but this is just due to issues with rounding numbers to two decimal places during the calculations. The important thing to note here is that you are guaranteed to make a profit of at least $4.47 on the match.

Calculating Profit

If you want to calculate your expected profit before placing your wagers, you can use the following calculation.

(Investment / TAP) – Investment =
Expected Profit

If we use the same figures as above, the calculation would be as follows.

($200 / 97.81%) – $200 = $4.48

As you can see, this is the profit figure we demonstrated above.

The arbitrage betting strategy clearly relies quite heavily on math, but you don’t need to be a genius with numbers to make it work. The calculations required are not particularly complex and can easily be done on a calculator. It’s just a case of learning them and knowing when and how to use them.

Advantages & Disadvantages of Arbitrage Betting

There are two main advantages of the arbitrage betting strategy. The first is simply the very fact that it is possible to create situations where you are guaranteed to make a profit on a sporting event regardless of the outcome. It could be argued that this is not even gambling, as there is no risk involved once you have created such a situation.

The second advantage is that it’s not really a difficult strategy to implement. Once you understand the basic principle of how it works, and the calculations involved, it is relatively easy to take advantage of any arbs that you manage to find.

However, this strategy is not without its disadvantages. It might be relatively easy to take advantage of arbs once you find them, but finding them is not actually that easy at all. There are lots of bettors out there looking for them, and they don’t last forever. You need to be quick to spot them, and quick to act. To make consistent and meaningful profits from arbitrage betting you will almost certainly need to invest a lot of time just constantly searching through the betting markets.

You also need to invest a lot of money too. Most arbs offer a potential return of between 1% and 3% of the total amount staked, and this means you need a large bankroll to make any real money.

Let’s assume you were able to find two good arbs a day on average, each with a return of 2%. You’d probably need to be betting full time to achieve this, and you’d need to bet a total of $5,000 on an arb to make $100 from it. That’s $10,000 across the two opportunities, and you’d want a bankroll of at least twice that amount. You’d be making $200 a day, but you’d need a minimum bankroll of $20,000.

That’s a sizable sum of money, and realistically you’d need even more than that. Another downside of arbitrage betting is that you need to have accounts with a lot of different bookmakers, and you need those accounts funded so that you can place a bet quickly when a particular bookmaker has the right odds that you need.

WARNING

Arbitrage betting is NOT a completely risk free strategy

It’s also important to note that there are some risks involved in arbitrage betting. There is no risk once you have placed the required bets, assuming you’ve done things properly, but that doesn’t mean the strategy itself is entirely without risk. There are several things that can go wrong, including the following.

  • Change in odds
  • Human error
  • Account limiting or closure
  • Bet cancellation
Change in odds

Taking advantage of an arb requires placing at least two bets at different bookmakers, and it’s unlikely that you’ll be able to place multiple bets simultaneously. There is always a chance that the odds will change after you’ve placed your first bet and before you’ve placed any subsequent bets, and this can result in an arb effectively disappearing. This means you have to either let the first bet run and take the associated risk with that, or place the subsequent bets anyway and make a small guaranteed loss.

Human error

You have to move quickly when arbitrage betting, and this can lead to making mistakes. It’s quite possible to make an error when carrying out the necessary calculations, or even when placing the required bets. These kinds of mistakes can prove to be quite costly.

Account limiting or closure

Most bookmakers do not like arbers, and if they suspect you of being one they may well limit your account or even close it. With a limited account you may not be able to stake the full amount you need to make an arb work, and with a closed account you won’t be able to bet with that bookmaker at all. This can severely affect your opportunities for arbing.

Bet cancellation

In some circumstances bookmakers can cancel bets once they have been struck, and this can be disastrous for you when arbing. You’ll get your stake back for the cancelled bet, but if you’ve already placed other bets to take advantage of an arb then you will be exposed to some risk of them losing without having the other outcome(s) covered. You may be able to place the cancelled bet again with another bookmaker, but you may not get the required odds to recreate the arb.

Arbitrage Betting – Our View

There is no doubt at all that arbitrage betting can be a profitable sports betting strategy. It is not, however, one that we can wholeheartedly recommend to everyone. The bankroll requirements are high and so are the time requirements, and you will be competing against a lot of well-organized betting syndicates looking for the same opportunities as you.

We absolutely wouldn’t talk you out of using this strategy, and if you happen to come across an arbitrage opportunity then you should always try to take advantage of it. For most bettors, though, we would suggest that it’s not worth spending too much time actively looking for arbs. The same time could be better spent on learning and developing other strategies that may be more profitable in the long run.

Tips & Advice for Arbitrage Betting

If you do decide to use the arbitrage betting strategy then the following tips and advice will help you to maximize your returns.

Stick to events with two possible outcomes

Arbitrage betting gets a lot more complicated when you use the strategy on events that have more than two possible outcomes. You’ll miss out on some opportunities if you only look at events that have just two possible outcomes, but you’ll make things a lot easier for yourself.

Find your own arbs

Finding arbs can be significantly less time consuming if you use alert services, tracking software or arbitrage websites and forums. There is always going to be lots of other people using them too though, and this means that the arbs that they do identify are going to disappear very quickly. If you have the time to spend identifying your own opportunities then you will probably make more money in the long run.

Always check your calculations

Getting your calculations wrong is the easiest way to lose money when arbitrage betting. Although you need to move quickly when you have spotted an arb, taking an extra moment or two to check your calculations will definitely prove to be time well spent.

Use a betting exchange were possible

Using betting exchanges can open up a lot more opportunities for arbitrage betting, due to the fact that you can lay outcomes as well as back them. Laying and backing makes the strategy a little more complicated, but can be very profitable.

Keep your betting accounts funded

You’ll need accounts with several bookmakers if you want to make money out of arbitrage betting, and it’s a very good idea to keep all your accounts funded. This way you’ll be able to place any bets required as soon as you highlight an arb, without having to spend time making deposits.

Form an arbing team

There are a number of advantages to arbing as part of a team. Collectively you will have more time to spend looking for arbs, and also more money to maximize your potential profits. You will benefit from having more betting accounts with bookmakers too, as each member of the team can open accounts in their name. This should help you to make accounts last longer before they are limited or closed.

Arbitrage Betting FAQ

Is arbitrage betting legal?

In some parts of the world it is illegal to bet on sports, which by extension would make arbitrage betting illegal. There are no specific laws making arbitrage betting illegal though, so if sports betting is legal where you live then so is arbing. Bookmakers don’t like it, and take measures to prevent it, but you’re not breaking the law.

Why don’t bookmakers like arbers?

Bookmakers don’t like arbers because they represent bad business for them. An arber will always lose a certain percentage of his bets with a bookmaker, because of betting on all the possible outcomes, but should make an overall profit in the long run. The bookmakers are aware of this, and they don’t want long term winners as customers. If they suspect a customer of arbing they will limit their account or even close it in order to protect their own profit margins.

How much money do I need?

There is no fixed amount of money required to use the arbitrage betting strategy. You can start with just a few dollars if you want, or you can start with thousands. A bigger bankroll will mean bigger potential profits, but please only ever bet with money that you can afford to lose. Arbitrage betting is a relatively safe way to bet when done properly, but things can go wrong and you can still lose money.

How much money can I make?

There is no way to accurately answer this question as it depends on a number of factors. The size of your bankroll, the number of arbs you can find, and the arbitrage percentage of those arbs will all affect your overall profitability. As a general rule you can expect to make returns of between 15% and 25% of your bankroll on a monthly basis, but this assumes that you have the time and ability to find arbs on a reasonably regular basis.

What sports can I bet on?

Technically you can bet on any sports using this strategy, but you’ll find the most arbs on sports where there are only two possible outcomes. Our opinion is that tennis is the best sport for arbitrage betting, but others may think differently. You can find arbing opportunities on US football, darts, snooker, basketball, and many other sports too.

Can I arb from the Hungary?

Arbitrage betting is certainly possible from the Hungary, but it’s more challenging than it is in many other parts of the world. This is because Hungary bettors are somewhat limited in terms of the bookmakers that they have access to, and the difference in odds between Hungary friendly bookmakers is not typically that great. This makes it a lot harder to find arbs, but it’s by no means impossible.

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Arbitrage bets tutorials

Step by Step Arbitrage Tutorial

This Step-by-step guide will give you a basic overview of some of the principles involved in fixed-odds arbitrage.

It is a good decision if you want to make risk-free profits using arbitrage.

Hope you will agree that it is better to use your money than leaving it in the bank to earn 2% in a year (you can easily earn 5% in one day with arbitrage) and it’s better than taking a risk in the stock market, which may or may not be kind to you.

There are places around the world where income earned from Sports Arbitrage is tax-free but you should check what the regulations in your country are.

This guide tells you everything you need to know to find your own risk-free bets but I have to tell you that you will need time and some dedication to find all the bets yourself. But there is an alternative – saving you time and frustration.
There are decent engines on a small monthly tax that search for arbitrages, all you need to do is to subscribe. With up to 200 opportunities a day, some of these services seeks out thousands of risk-free, guaranteed money opportunities every month and notifies you in seconds. All you have to do is grab the information, place the bets and count your profits.

Lesson 1 – Action Plan For Placing Risk-Free Bets

Prepare yourself Open all of the important sportsbook accounts NOW so that you are ready for action as sooas an arbitrage is created. You will find all of the information you require here:
If you use the links provided on this site then you will also receive the highest bonuses currently on offer from each bookmaker. These runs sometimes up to 100% so you will find yourself in profit before you even begin.
The reason these companies give out such bonuses is because they know that most gamblers will just lose it by betting, plus a whole lot more. However ,this will not be the case for you, because you will never be gambling.
As an Sports Arbitrage Trader, you will bet, but you will ALWAYS make a profit.
And remember – you will not need to place any funds on any of the accounts until you actually have an arbitrage opportunity to invest in. Find an event likely to yield an arbitrage opportunity. These events include US Football, Basketball, Soccer, Tennis, Golf, Cricket, Boxing, Baseball and a number of others. Lesson 2 will explain in more detail what to look out for.

You can check the online arbitrageevents calendar to see what events are taking place that are likely to yield risk-free betting opportunities:
Check the odds on the events you have chosen Using the internet, check through the prices offered by the bookmakers you have decided to use and make a list of which ones are offering the best prices on the events you are covering.
You can do this with paper, pen and a calculator, but if you want to take this opportunity seriously, consider using spreadsheets.
Calculate the percentages from the odds Use these tables to assess whether the odds you have will produce an arbitrage betting opportunity.
Conversion Tables
The tables are a rather old-fashioned way of going about this though, and I recommend that you consider upgrading to spreadsheets for this operation – it performs all of the necessary calculations for you, including how much you need to stake on each outcome.
Place quickly your bets Once you have found an arbitrage opportunity, act immediately. Place your bets. It is best to open up 2 (or 3) separate browser windows so that you can have one sportsbook in each. This will allow you to place your bets almost simultaneously.
Write down the activity on your accounts It’s important to keep track of all of the bets you place and the flow of funds. You can customize any accounts software to do this – just set it up to include each bank and credit card account plus each sportsbook account. Note every transaction you make – transfers from account to account, outgoing payments, wagers placed, pending and actual returns. Be sure to give each arbitrage investment its own ID number so that you can easily tie all related transactions together.
Repeat the above steps as many times as you want Yes, it really does work and you really can choose how often you want to generate a risk-free profit.

Lesson 2 – The Two Factors Which Identify An Arbitrage Opportunity

Here is the key to the whole system.

An event will produce the necessary arbitrage – and a guaranteed profit – if the following criteria are satisfied.

Limited number of possible outcomes.

The event that you are betting on should ideally have either 2 or 3 possible outcomes.

For example, the event may be a head-to-head contest, such as a tennis or snooker match, where only one of the players can win. Or you may consider a cricket or football match, where there are three possible results including a tie/draw.

There are exceptions, where arbs become available in events with more than three outcomes, and they can prove to be very lucrative, but you will find your most regular arbs in events as described above.

Adequate percentage margin

When you are beginning, it will probably be better to restrict your betting to opportunities that yield 5% or more. This will allow you a margin for error as you are learning, and any mistakes will probably just result in a break-even situation where you may just have to sacrifice your profit.

However, as you grow in experience, you will be able to consider ALL situations, including the many HUNDREDS of 1%-3% opportunities that occur every month. While the juicier 8%-15% arbs, which pop up a few times a week, will provide you with wonderful bonuses, the smaller, far more frequent ones will consistently add to your bottom-line. It is a reasonable expectation to earn an extra EUR 200- EUR 300 per week from this activity without spending more than an hour a day on it. In fact, it only takes a few minutes to actually place the bets so if you are able to spot an opportunity early, you will spend far less than an hour on it.

So – that’s it. You find the event, do the math, place the bets, and earn a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome. Once you have streamlined your processes, it couldn’t be much simpler.

The skill is in finding suitable events to bet on. You’ll be able to learn more in detail about this below.
See the “Events with arbitrage opportunities” for the events that have big opportunities to produce arbitrage.

Lesson 3 – Maximise your Profits

Using Biased Stakes

You now know that arbitrage opportunities exist and that they occur frequently in many events. You should now be familiar with the idea of placing bets on every possible outcome and extracting a profit from the price differentials.
Up to now, the assumption has been that you would proportion your stakes equally – in order to receive the same profit, regardless of the outcome of the event. Now you will learn how, by modifying your staking proportions, you can generate even greater profits, whilst continuing to adhere to a zero-risk strategy.
Consider a recent example that occurred in the Australian Grand Prix. Several sportsbooks had joined individual drivers in match-pairs and the bets were based upon which driver would do best out of the two in the race. A nice arbitrage occurred between two of the books and the situation was as follows:
In the match-up between Fischella & Heidfield (I had never heard of them either, nor do I know ANYTHING about motor sports – but that doesn’t matter very much with arbitrage), the prices offered by two bookmakers seemed to be in opposition. YES – the compilers were in disagreement and this meant it was time for me to take the monetary gift they were holding out in front of me.
Fischella was 6/4, which is equivalent to 40.00% (at Bet365)
Betting EUR 400 on this driver would return EUR 1000 if he won
Betting EUR 400 on this driver would return EUR 1000 if he won
By staking EUR 400 on each driver, a return of EUR 1000 was locked-in and guaranteed a profit of EUR 200 regardless of the outcome.
But I decided to add a bit of fun (& the chance for extra profit) to the trade:
By altering my stake to favour Fischella, I put myself in a position to make a really large profit if he won, and still make a small profit if he lost. This is what I did:
Instead of betting EUR 400 on each driver, I bet EUR 325 on Heidfield and EUR 475 on Fischella.
So my total investment was still EUR 800 but the payoffs were like this:
If Fischella won I would receive EUR 1187.50 from the bookmaker – a very satisfying profit of EUR 387.50
If Heidfield won I would receive EUR 812.50 from the bookmaker – a small profit of EUR 12.50
Fischella did win this race and I was rewarded for my choice with a big profit without taking any risk at all.
By altering your stakes in this way, you can generate significantly higher profits from each arbitrage opportunity you take.
It can also be quite good fun!

Double Payouts

A large number of opportunities in May 2002 gave risk-free bettors the chance to make windfall gains thanks to the many soccer markets offered in the World Cup.
In particular, the Total Goals and other similar markets in Corners allowed us to take advantage of disagreements between bookmakers, not only in price but also in the range of the results.
An example found on 24th May illustrates this well:
WORLD CUP: TOTAL CORNERS
OVER 599.5  Unibet 7/10
UNDER 630  Canbet 13/8
Arbitrage profit: 3%
You can see that if the actual result was between 600 and 629 inclusive, both bets would win and the total profit would be approximately 103%
This is a risk-free chance to double your money since the worst-case scenario is a profit of 3% if only one of the bets wins.
These types of opportunities appear regularly as similar bets crop up throughout the entire regular football season.

Cross market arbitrages

Not all of bettors know that there are more sophisticated surebet types, which include mixed markets (cross-market surebets). For example, standard, most popular surebet type is 1-X-2 surebet, where all sides are taken from 3-Way line. But do you know that one of these three sides can be taken from another market? If we denote H1(0) as a line for ‘team 1 wins with 0 spread’, then new surebet type H1(0)-X-2 can be built More over there is even another surebet type H1(0)-2X-2. Here we mixed THREE (!) line types: handicap line, 3-Way line, Double Chance. Of course, formulas (to calculate surebet profit) are absolutely another than in case of traditional 1-X-2 surebets. Let us go further – there are ASIAN HANDICAP lines, for example H1(+0.25) which means a line for ‘team 1 wins with a spread +0.25’. In fact this bet is divided into two sub-bets, with spreads 0 and +0.5. So I can prove that there exists a surebet type H1(+0.25)-X-2. Also take into account EURO HANDICAP lines, which are lines similar to 3-Way lines 1-X-2, but they are added a spread.

Lesson 4 – Choosing Your Bookmakers

There are approximately 500 bookmakers out there in cyberspace ready to take bets from you. So why don’t we deal with all of them? More bookies means more arbs, surely?
While a lot of the bookmakers online are legitimate, well-run companies; and even publicly traded companies on the London Stock Exchange, there are also plenty out there that are not entirely honest and, when it comes to paying your winnings, may just disappear.

Our list of companies we deal with is highly selective. However, if you decide that you want to expand your portfolio to include other bookmakers, the crucial elements to consider when choosing them are:

Are they solvent?

This is difficult to tell at first glance. A clue is the quality of the site. Does it look like they have spent lots of money on developing the site? Does it work quickly? A decent betting site with servers quick enough to support a decent number of clients costs around EUR 200,000, plus annual upkeep costs of at least EUR 50,000. A poorly designed and maintained site may well reflect the bookmaker’s ability to pay. Also, check out some of the betting bulletin boards on the Internet which talk about bookies who have and have not paid.

Are they licensed by any government?

The About Us section of the bookmaker’s site (sometimes labelled ‘company information’) should explain where the bookmaker is based and whether they have been issued a licence to trade there. The most stringent checks on businesses are made in the UK, Ireland and Australia. Bookies trading out of Gibraltar and Alderney are also reasonably carefully checked. Those based in the Caribbean and in central America often have official licences which merely reflect that they have paid a fee to the government – very few checks have been made (if any) to see whether they are legitimate operators.

Are the betting odds too good to be true?

You should expect odds to vary – indeed this is how you profit as a Sports Arbitrage Trader. However, if you are considering registering with a bookmaker because they consistently appear out of line with the rest of the market, then try not to let greed cloud your judgement. They may be a completely legitimate operator who you can trust but they may also be an operator who will disappear quickly.
Once you have answered these questions and you are happy that the bookmaker is legitimate, you should test them. Deposit a small amount of money, have a bet and if it wins take your money out. Test their systems to make sure they work as you would expect them to do. Does the money come back to you within the timescale they promised on their website? Is the amount they have paid you correct? If so, then you can probably bet a little more with them. If not, then perhaps it’s better to exclude them from your portfolio of accounts.
Think regularly about the bookies you deal with. Has their behaviour changed at all recently? Do they take longer to pay than they used to? If your answers to these questions are yes then you should perhaps reduce your exposure with them.

What makes a good bookie?

With so much choice available to bettors about where they place their bets, bookies should be competing more and more on customer service.
For sports-arbitrage, the following aspects help to make a good bookmaker:
A good range of coverage and good odds
Some bookies only cover a limited number of events and offer uncompetitive odds on all of them. These bookies do not deserve to have customers & will seldom be of interest to you as a Sports Arbitrage Trader.
A willingness to take a decent sized bet
There are bookmakers who are not willing to accept anything but small bets. In competitive games – for example, live English Premier League, Italian Serie A or Spanish La Liga matches – bookies should accept straight bets of at least £1000 per side without changing their odds.

Good customer service

On the telephone, bettors should expect to talk to operators who have a good knowledge of betting markets. Nothing is more frustrating than trying to place a bet with someone who does not really understand what you are trying to do. On the Internet the site should be easy to navigate and it should not be possible to place bets by mistake. You should be asked to reconfirm your bets (this is a particularly annoying feature of the William Hill site, which does not have a reconfirmation facility).

Clear statements/accounts

Bookmakers should be able to provide you with a clear and simple print out of all the bets you have placed with them, going back over months (and even years). They should also tape all conversations you have with them on the telephone so if there is a dispute it can be easily resolved who owes how much money to whom. Mistakes can happen a lot more often than you might imagine.
If you can find a bookmaker who offers these four crucial elements then it is worth sticking with them. It’s amazing how few bookmakers actually are able to make four such simple elements work properly and offer a service that makes you happy to bet with them.

The following list is made up of bookies which manage to fulfil at least three of the four criteria and they should be considered essential acounts for any non-US resident Sports Arbitrage Trader.
Setting up bookmaker accounts is a time-consuming yet essential task for every sports-arbitrage trader.

Lesson 5 – Managing Your Trading Capital Effectively

The ideal bank size for fixed-odds arbitrage will depend upon your objectives. If it is your intention simply to arb on an ad hoc basis, you probably won’t require access to more than EUR 2000 or EUR 3000. This should allow you to invest in 4 or 5 weekly opportunities each yielding EUR 10 – EUR 15 in profit. However, if you want to make as much as possible – betting on every opportunity available to you, with much larger stakes – then you will find that you will require more – perhaps up to EUR 25,000 or more.
Independent Finance Corporation Limited (IFCL) is the largest
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Whilst individual styles and preferences vary, I would recommend that whatever its size , you should aim to invest a maximum of 10% of your bank in any single arbitrage opportunity
This will allow you to maintain a high degree of liquidity, regardless of the actual size of your bank, which means that you will be able to participate in more opportunities, and spread your funds amongst a larger number of bookmakers. In the first instance, this will help to minimise the impact of any errors and losses which occur due to unforeseen circumstances. Maintaining liquidity in this way will also reduce your trading costs, as you will have to withdraw funds from bookmakers less frequently. Whenever possible you should try to effect a withdrawal by means of a losing bet (and a win elsewhere) rather than requesting a payout. Your increased liquidity will allow you to do this far more easily than if you regularly tie up your entire capital by over-trading.
Initially, you may be tempted to bet as much as possible on every opportunity as it appears. While this “slash and burn” approach may have some positive effects on short-term profitability, the likelihood is that it will damage your longer-term prospects as an arbitrageur. Betting the maximum stake all the time will get you noticed by the bookmakers which may or may not impede your progress.
By keeping your stakes lower – say at 75% or 50% of the maximum allowed – you are far more likely be allowed to continue betting at this level indefinitely. Over the long-term, a constant flow of smaller profits will probably serve you better than a short burst of high profits followed by constant frustration over having to pass on arbs or only being able to bet a token amount.
In any case, I would recommend that you keep your trading capital separate from any funds you require to maintain your lifestyle. By ensuring that you do not need to regularly withdraw funds for personal use, you will be able to reduce your transaction costs and by allowing your profits to stay in the system you will find that your subsequent profits grow even faster.

Lesson 6 – Bookmakers & Maximum Stake Allowances

There will be times when a bookmaker will not allow the full stake that you wish to bet. If not approached carefully, this can introduce a element of risk into the arbitrage process. There are some practical ways around this.
In any case, if you are new to arbitrage, bear in mind that it is always a good idea to start betting with small stakes in order to become familiar with the bookmakers used. There is no substitute for experience & it will only take a few successful arbs before you are able to invest fully in each opportunity and join the exclusive club of people making a worthwhile second-income as sports-arbitrage traders.
Take the all of the precautionary steps detailed in the guidebook – they are all listed as a result of several years of professional experience and they will always be relevant.
Many bookmakers show the maximum stake that they will take before you have to commit any funds. This is ideal because it means that you can calculate your stakes according to their limits and place your bets in confidence. However, there are some bookmakers who will not tell you what the stake limit is until you have already attempted to place your bet. This can lead to an exposure if you have already placed the other side of your arb. In order to eliminate this risk, it is important to know which bookmakers these are.
Although this is subject to change over time and should, therefore, be reviewed regularly, the following is a list of bookmakers who do not display the stake limit before the user attempts to place their bet:

One way to circumvent the difficulties presented by these bookmakers’ lack of transparency is to enter an unfeasibly large wager which will definitely be rejected. At that point, the bookmaker will indicate the maximum allowable stake, which is exactly the information you require.
However, the best method is to learn by experience and keep in mind individual bookmakers’ staking patterns – see section “Bookmakers review” for the stake limits

Lesson 7 – How To Find Arbitrage

Using US sports as an example, there are a number of resources available on the web which can assist your arb-hunting. A very good source for price-comparison in US sports is Tip-Ex
If you are looking for arbs in, say NHL, run the ml (money-line) query on the site and it will list the prices available at the bookmakers it scans. This will give you a snapshot of the current markets. You will notice that Tip-Ex does not cover all the sportsbooks that you may deal with, so you should visit each of those sites and make a note of the best prices available.
This technique, timed correctly, will often throw up one or two arbs immediately.
However, the markets in American sports can be quite volatile so begin this process about 90 minutes before the games are due to start, and continually update your manual record of prices, whilst running the Tip-Ex “ml changes” query every few minutes. You will soon start to see that the prices do indeed move around and you should be able to pick out which bookmakers are among the slower to react.
The scope for arbs solely between the US or Island sportsbooks is impressive on its own but if you are able to include prices offered by European bookmakers in your searches, your results will be even better. UK and European books tend to work on higher profit margins than their US counterparts, but they also tend to be slower to update their prices on US sports. This is largely because they enjoy the cushion of high margins but also because very few of them employ staff who are expert in these sports.
Meanwhile, specialist US and Island sportsbooks will react to team news, player injuries and other relevant changes that occur in the various markets.
There are two significant types of opportunity that are created by the above situation:
Playing US books against the slower Europeans is the first.
Playing US books against themselves in a rapidly changing market is the other.
A word of caution though. Whenever you use these free services: the prices are not updated in real-time and are, therefore, sometimes out-of-date.

Lesson 8 – Using Betting Exchanges

Exchanges are specialised betting sites which allow users to place and accept bets with other users – cutting out the sportsbook. As liquidity continues to grow, more opportunities for arbitrage profits present themselves.
They do not set prices or take bets themselves – they act as a medium in which users deal with each other. So, if one user wants to bet on a particular player or team, and another wishes to take that bet, once the price is agreed, the bet is made. The exchange takes a small percentage of the transaction (usually this fee is taken from whoever wins the bet)
Prices on exchanges are often better than those offered by traditional sportsbooks and you can always see the depth of the market so you know how much can be staked.
Betfair is currently the largest and most liquid exchange, and it is well worth opening an account there in readiness for the opportunities that appear.
Profitable exchange strategies

The first of these is the simplest.
Include the exchange on your list of books when searching for arbitrage prices. Often, prices are better on exchanges and this can lead to easy arbitrage profits. Remember, though, to take into account the transaction fee which will be levied if your exchange bet is a winner.

The second method exploits the unique nature of the exchanges, but requires attention to the market you are betting in.
If you are unable to find a suitable price to complete an arbitrage, you may ask for it on an exchange. Of course, there is no guarantee that you will be able to trade at the price you ask, as long as it is not too far from the general market, there is some chance. Of course, you must keep an eye on the opposite side of your arbitrage trade to ensure that your hedge price does not slip away.

The third technique is slightly more involved than the previous two, but allows for greater profit potential.
The exchanges allow you to take on the role of the sportsbook in any transaction. This means that it is possible to back an outcome with a sportsbook and then lay the outcome (close your exposure) on an exchange at a better price. This way you lock-in a profit regardless of the result.
An advantage of this technique is that it can be used in many sports which fall out of the normal portfolio of the sports arbitrage trader.
Take a horse-race, for example, where a particular horse is offered at 5/1 by most sportsbooks, but 9/1 by one sportsbook. After backing the horse at 9/1, you could then offer to lay it on an exchange at 7/1.
When your price is taken, you will have a guaranteed profit of twice your original stake if the horse wins and you will break-even (minus the exchanges commission) if the horse loses. You can easily structure your stakes to ensure a profit regardless of outcome.

The fourth technique allows you to take full advantage of the ability to take on the role of the sportsbook. Sportsbooks make money by taking bets on losing outcomes and this option is available to anyone who uses a betting-exchange. This provides staggering potential for profit.
Consider an average day of horse-racing where there are 3 race meetings, 17 races involving 187 horses. Only 17 of those horses can be winners, which leaves 170 losers on just one day.
By laying bets on exchanges, you can make money from the losers.

Lesson 9 – Minimizing The Impact Of Transaction Fees & Exchange Rates

If you use a credit card to fund your account and you find that you have lost out due to an exchange rate difference, send a polite fax to the bookmaker involved, showing them your credit card statement with the relevant charge on it. Many will credit your betting account with the difference.
It is possible to circumvent exchange rate losses entirely if you are both organised and well-funded. Sending funds by bank transfer is usually free and your betting account will be credited with the exact amount of money that you send. Of course, the transfer may take up to 5 days so you will probably not want to have to do this too often, hence the requirement to be organised. As you will be sending cash to the bookmaker and not using credit, you will need to be well-funded.
Alternatively, you may send money to a bookmaker via Western Union. This transfer of funds is almost instant, your betting account will be credited with the exact amount that you send, and the bookmakers will usually cover your Western Union costs for you if you send more than EUR 500 – some will even pay you a bonus for using this method of funding. In any case, Western Union fees are currently fixed at around EUR 15 when sending funds to a company.
Increasing numbers of bookmakers are beginning to accept payment via intermediaries such as NETeller. These facilities allow you to transfer funds between bookmakers almost instantly, although there may be small fees to pay.
If you are unable or unwilling to use the methods above then the credit card transaction fees are leakages that you will have to accept for the time being. As time goes by, fewer sportsbooks will make these charges. In the first instance, whilst they charge a fee of between 1% and 5% for deposits, many of the same companies pay bonuses of between 10% and 40% upon deposit. The deposit fees are, therefore, more than offset by the deposit bonuses.
You can also take advantage of the many cashback deals offered by credit card companies – receiving a percentage of each and every deposit you make to fund your bets. As a moderately active trader, you will find that your total betting turnover can easily approach £1/3 million annually and credit card cashback can accumulate to a significant trading bonus.
Also, bear in mind that the percentage you make on an arb will be based on the total outlay – whereas the transaction fee you pay to the bookie will be based only on the deposit at that bookie, so the arb will usually still be profitable. (See example below)
Book 1 (charges 3%)
Book 2 (no charge)
Arb: 3%
Total outlay: EUR 100
Return on arb: EUR 103 (assuming proportionate staking)
If you are backing the favourite at Book 1, the likelihood is that you will stake approximately 70% of your total outlay there. This means that your transaction fee will be 3% of EUR 70 i.e. EUR 2.10
If, however, you are backing the outsider at Book 1, then the transaction fee will be 3% of EUR 30 i.e. EUR 0.90
If the bet that you make with Book 1 is the winning one, then you will receive extra funds on that account which you have not had to pay a transaction fee for.
This means that you will be able to have a few “free” arbs on that account before paying any more transaction fees and this will enhance the profitability of future arbs involving that sportsbook.
There will be occasions (when an arb is very small), where the profits are wiped out by the transaction fees, but if this means that you have funds (i.e. your winnings) on that account for next time, then you are better off even though you did not make a profit on that particular transaction.
You may also choose to weight your stakes to compensate you for extra transaction fees, rather than weighting them just to give you an equal pay-off regardless of outcome. This means that you will win more if the bet at Book 2 wins – to compensate you for having to pay another transaction fee the next time you deal with Book 1.
One thing is certain: to make money with arbitrage, you must actively participate! Once you begin, and start to view the project as whole, rather than as a series of individual trades, the scope for profitability becomes very clear.

What do I need before starting?

0) Choose a surebet software (we highly recommend the leader)

https://www.oddsmonkey.com/

First step

1) Open and verify the accounts in the top recommended bookmakers for beginners which count and names are described in the units.

https://smarkets.com/

https://www.matchbook.com/

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/rtn

https://www.betfair.com/sport

Second step

2) Open an e-wallet account and fund the bookmaker’s accounts.

https://www.skrill.com/en/

Third step

3) Get fast internet connection and computer to be able to open the bookmaker’s pages quickly. UPC- Internet-500

Fourth step

4) Learn what is the recommended frequency of placing bets and what should be the maximum amount if you want your account to last longer and stay under the bookmaker’s radar.

https://www.thesurebettor.com/back-lay-betting

Fifth step

5) These are the most important things you must have in mind before start placing sure bets. But there are many other important things that you must know, for example, how much money you will win per month on base other arguments that are covered in the  units.

THE CHECKLIST BOOKMAKERS
SURE BETS SERVICES

  1. SURE BETS

Get fast and good internet connectivity

Make sure your bankroll is large enough

Open multiple bookmaker accounts

Get digital wallets for online payment

Subscribe to a sure bets service

Load your bookmaker accounts with money Find sure bets from you arbitrage service

Place bets on all sides involved Collect winnings and REPEAT! We have listed different

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Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage Betting

The basic principle of arbitrage betting is a simple one. The idea is to place a series of bets on all the possible outcomes of an event, using a combination of odds and stakes that ensures you are guaranteed to make a profit regardless of what the actual outcome is.

You might think this is too good to be true, but arbitrage betting is a real strategy that does work. In the right circumstances it is entirely possible to make guaranteed returns from your bets. It’s not quite as simple as it sounds though. Many bettors have made the mistake of thinking that this betting strategy is an easy route to untold riches, but the reality is that it takes a lot of hard work and patience.

In this article we’ll explore arbitrage betting in more detail. We’ll explain how it works and why it’s possible, and also teach you all the calculations you will need to know when using this strategy. We’ll also look at its advantages and disadvantages, provide some tips and advice for using this strategy, and answer some frequently asked questions about arbitrage betting.

It helps to understand the methods that bookmakers use to set their odds before learning about arbitrage betting. If you’re not familiar with these, or just want to refresh your memory, please read our article on how bookmakers make money.

How Arbitrage Betting Works

As we’ve already explained, arbitrage betting involves placing bets on all the possible outcomes of an event in order to guarantee a profit. In a tennis match, for example, you would place two bets – one on each player to win. In a soccer match you would place three bets – one on each team to win plus one on the draw.

You’re probably already aware that placing such bets with a single bookmaker would actually guarantee a loss, not a profit. This is because of the way that bookmakers set the odds to give themselves a built in profit margin. For a simple example, let’s imagine there was an upcoming tennis match where a bookmaker thought both players had an equal chance of winning. They might set the odds as follows.

Bookmaker A
Andy Murray v Roger Federer
Andy Murray to Win
1.91
Roger Federer to Win
1.91

A winning $100 bet at odds of 1.91 would return a total of $191.00, including the initial $100 stake. So if you bet $100 on each of the two players, you’d be wagering a total of $200 to get a return of $191.00 regardless of who won. This would represent a loss of $9.

Arbitrage betting is therefore not as simple as just betting on all the possible outcomes of an event. If it was that easy, everyone would be doing it and there wouldn’t be any bookmakers in business. What you have to do is find opportunities where the odds with different bookmakers make guaranteed profits a possibility. Such opportunities are often referred to as arbs.

Using the same hypothetical tennis match as above, it’s possible that another bookmaker would take a different view on the likely outcome. They might make Murray the favorite to win, and set their odds as follows.

Bookmaker B
Andy Murray v Roger Federer
Andy Murray to Win
1.70
Roger Federer to Win
2.20

This has created an arbitrage opportunity. We’ll show you some calculations you can use to highlight when an arb exists later, but please just take our word for it at this stage. You could make a guaranteed profit by betting on Murray with “Bookmaker A” and Federer with “Bookmaker B”.

It’s important to note at this stage that you have to work out the optimal stakes when arbitrage betting. We’ll shortly show you the necessary calculations for this too, but we’ll keep it relatively simple for now and use some round figures. The two bets you would want to make here are $107 on Murray at 1.91 and $93 on Federer at 2.20, again for a total of $200 of wagered.

Arbitrage Betting Returns Example

As you can see, you would make a profit here regardless of which player wins. Although this is only a hypothetical example, it should help you to understand just how arbitrage betting works. We’ve already mentioned that similar opportunities do occur for real, and we’ll now explain why.

Why Arbitrage Betting Is Possible

Arbitrage betting is only possible when the right circumstances present themselves. The odds available on sporting events regularly vary from one bookmaker to another, but there needs to be a sufficient difference for an arb to exist. Such a difference will typically occur for one of the following two reasons.

  • Bookmakers taking differing views on the likely outcome of an event.
  • Bookmakers adjusting their odds to create a balanced book.

The first reason is the one we referred to in our example above. Bookmakers tend to set their initial odds based on their views of what they think will happen in an event, so it is perfectly possible that two bookmakers will set different odds if they have different opinions about how an event is likely to turn out. If their opinions are different enough that there is a significant disparity in the odds that they offer, then an arbitrage opportunity may well exist.

Although a bookmaker’s initial odds may reflect their views about an event, they will subsequently adjust those odds based on the wagers that they take. If they take a lot of wagers on one particular outcome, they will almost certainly reduce the odds on that outcome. At the same time they will increase the odds on the other outcome (or outcomes). This helps them to reduce their exposure to risk, and it can also lead to a notable difference between the odds available at different bookmakers.

There are some other reasons why arbs occur, but the two mentioned here are easily the most common.

How To Find Arbs

One of the biggest challenges you will face when using an arbitrage betting strategy is actually finding the right opportunities. Although they do occur reasonably frequently, they don’t usually last very long. There are lots of bettors looking for them so they generally get spotted very quickly. As soon as a few bets have been placed to take advantage of an arb, the chances are that the odds will have changed enough for the opportunity to no longer exist.

You have three primary options when it comes to finding arbs. These are as follows.

  • Websites and forums
  • Software and alert services
  • Your own research
Websites & Forums

There are several websites that advertise arbitrage opportunities as and when they appear, and some forums where users can post them up when they identify them. Using such websites and forums can be a relatively easy way to find arbs, but there are some downsides.

Firstly, you won’t generally find the most lucrative arbs this way. People tend to keep those to themselves. You also have to be quick to take advantage of the ones that you do find. If there are lots of other people using the same sites and forums, and there usually are, then the opportunities are likely to disappear quite quickly.

Software & Alert Services

There is tracking software you can purchase that will find arbs for you, and alert services you can subscribe to that will automatically notify you of them. These are relatively easy options, and very simple to use. You don’t have to do much work yourself other than place the actual bets. They will cost you money though, and you may suffer from the same problem of the opportunities not lasting long.

Your Own Research

Doing your own research is probably the best option for finding arbs. It requires the most work, but the rewards can be much greater. By finding your own opportunities you can hopefully take full advantage of them before anyone else is aware of them. You may also be able to find the more valuable arbs which don’t generally get advertised, although this depends on how much time you can dedicate to your research and how quickly you can react to any opportunities you find.

The main downside to doing your own research is that you’ll have to do all the necessary calculations yourself too. These calculations are not too complicated, but you do need to fully understand them and be able to apply them quickly.

Calculations Required for Arbitrage Betting

There are two calculations you need to do when arbitrage betting. The first calculation is simply for determining whether an opportunity exists, while the second calculation is for determining the size of the bets you should place. There is also a third calculation you can use to work out what your overall profit should be.

Determining Whether an Arb Exists

Please note that this calculation is based on using decimal odds. If you are working with odds in a different format you can use our conversion tool to convert them into decimal format.

To determine whether an arb exists or not you must first find the best odds available on each of the possible outcomes of an event. You must then apply the following calculation to each set of odds, with the result expressed as a percentage figure. This result for each set of odds is known as the individual arbitrage percentage, or IAP.

(1 / Odds) x 100 = IAP

Using the odds for the hypothetical tennis match we mentioned earlier, the calculations would therefore be as follows.

IAP for Andy Murray = (1 / 1.91) x 100 = 52.36%
IAP for Roger Federer = (1 / 2.20) x 100 = 45.45%

You must then add those two IAPs together. Continuing with the same example, the calculation would be as follows.

52.36% + 45.45% = 97.81%

If the result is less than 100% then an arbitrage opportunity exists. In this case we can see that an opportunity does exist, as the result is 97.81%. This is referred to as the total arbitrage percentage, or TAP.

The lower the percentage, the greater the potential profit. Ideally you want to look for 98% or less, to make the profits worthwhile, but technically anything below 100% is workable. Any result of 100% or greater means that there is no arbitrage opportunity.

Calculating Bet Sizes

As we demonstrated in our earlier example, you have to get the bet sizes right to make a profit when arbitrage betting. In order to do this you have to use the following calculation, where investment is the total sum that you are looking to stake on the arb.

(Investment x IAP) / TAP = Required Stake

For our hypothetical match between Murray and Federer, assuming an investment of $200, the calculations would look like this.

Required Stake for Murray = ($200 x 52.36%) / 97.81% = $107.06
Required Stake for Federer = ($200 x 45.45%) / 97.81% = $92.94

Placing the two bets using these stakes should guarantee the same profit, regardless of the outcome. Let’s see if that’s the case.

Arbitrage Betting Returns Example 2

There’s a very minor difference of a single cent, but this is just due to issues with rounding numbers to two decimal places during the calculations. The important thing to note here is that you are guaranteed to make a profit of at least $4.47 on the match.

Calculating Profit

If you want to calculate your expected profit before placing your wagers, you can use the following calculation.

(Investment / TAP) – Investment =
Expected Profit

If we use the same figures as above, the calculation would be as follows.

($200 / 97.81%) – $200 = $4.48

As you can see, this is the profit figure we demonstrated above.

The arbitrage betting strategy clearly relies quite heavily on math, but you don’t need to be a genius with numbers to make it work. The calculations required are not particularly complex and can easily be done on a calculator. It’s just a case of learning them and knowing when and how to use them.

Advantages & Disadvantages of Arbitrage Betting

There are two main advantages of the arbitrage betting strategy. The first is simply the very fact that it is possible to create situations where you are guaranteed to make a profit on a sporting event regardless of the outcome. It could be argued that this is not even gambling, as there is no risk involved once you have created such a situation.

The second advantage is that it’s not really a difficult strategy to implement. Once you understand the basic principle of how it works, and the calculations involved, it is relatively easy to take advantage of any arbs that you manage to find.

However, this strategy is not without its disadvantages. It might be relatively easy to take advantage of arbs once you find them, but finding them is not actually that easy at all. There are lots of bettors out there looking for them, and they don’t last forever. You need to be quick to spot them, and quick to act. To make consistent and meaningful profits from arbitrage betting you will almost certainly need to invest a lot of time just constantly searching through the betting markets.

You also need to invest a lot of money too. Most arbs offer a potential return of between 1% and 3% of the total amount staked, and this means you need a large bankroll to make any real money.

Let’s assume you were able to find two good arbs a day on average, each with a return of 2%. You’d probably need to be betting full time to achieve this, and you’d need to bet a total of $5,000 on an arb to make $100 from it. That’s $10,000 across the two opportunities, and you’d want a bankroll of at least twice that amount. You’d be making $200 a day, but you’d need a minimum bankroll of $20,000.

That’s a sizable sum of money, and realistically you’d need even more than that. Another downside of arbitrage betting is that you need to have accounts with a lot of different bookmakers, and you need those accounts funded so that you can place a bet quickly when a particular bookmaker has the right odds that you need.

Warning

Arbitrage betting is NOT a completely risk free strategy

It’s also important to note that there are some risks involved in arbitrage betting. There is no risk once you have placed the required bets, assuming you’ve done things properly, but that doesn’t mean the strategy itself is entirely without risk. There are several things that can go wrong, including the following.

  • Change in odds
  • Human error
  • Account limiting or closure
  • Bet cancellation
Change in odds

Taking advantage of an arb requires placing at least two bets at different bookmakers, and it’s unlikely that you’ll be able to place multiple bets simultaneously. There is always a chance that the odds will change after you’ve placed your first bet and before you’ve placed any subsequent bets, and this can result in an arb effectively disappearing. This means you have to either let the first bet run and take the associated risk with that, or place the subsequent bets anyway and make a small guaranteed loss.

Human error

You have to move quickly when arbitrage betting, and this can lead to making mistakes. It’s quite possible to make an error when carrying out the necessary calculations, or even when placing the required bets. These kinds of mistakes can prove to be quite costly.

Account limiting or closure

Most bookmakers do not like arbers, and if they suspect you of being one they may well limit your account or even close it. With a limited account you may not be able to stake the full amount you need to make an arb work, and with a closed account you won’t be able to bet with that bookmaker at all. This can severely affect your opportunities for arbing.

Bet cancellation

In some circumstances bookmakers can cancel bets once they have been struck, and this can be disastrous for you when arbing. You’ll get your stake back for the cancelled bet, but if you’ve already placed other bets to take advantage of an arb then you will be exposed to some risk of them losing without having the other outcome(s) covered. You may be able to place the cancelled bet again with another bookmaker, but you may not get the required odds to recreate the arb.

Arbitrage Betting – Our View

There is no doubt at all that arbitrage betting can be a profitable sports betting strategy. It is not, however, one that we can wholeheartedly recommend to everyone. The bankroll requirements are high and so are the time requirements, and you will be competing against a lot of well-organized betting syndicates looking for the same opportunities as you.

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Our Rating for Arbitrage Betting

We absolutely wouldn’t talk you out of using this strategy, and if you happen to come across an arbitrage opportunity then you should always try to take advantage of it. For most bettors, though, we would suggest that it’s not worth spending too much time actively looking for arbs. The same time could be better spent on learning and developing other strategies that may be more profitable in the long run.

Tips & Advice for Arbitrage Betting

If you do decide to use the arbitrage betting strategy then the following tips and advice will help you to maximize your returns.

Stick to events with two possible outcomes

Arbitrage betting gets a lot more complicated when you use the strategy on events that have more than two possible outcomes. You’ll miss out on some opportunities if you only look at events that have just two possible outcomes, but you’ll make things a lot easier for yourself.

Find your own arbs

Finding arbs can be significantly less time consuming if you use alert services, tracking software or arbitrage websites and forums. There is always going to be lots of other people using them too though, and this means that the arbs that they do identify are going to disappear very quickly. If you have the time to spend identifying your own opportunities then you will probably make more money in the long run.

Always check your calculations

Getting your calculations wrong is the easiest way to lose money when arbitrage betting. Although you need to move quickly when you have spotted an arb, taking an extra moment or two to check your calculations will definitely prove to be time well spent.

Use a betting exchange were possible

Using betting exchanges can open up a lot more opportunities for arbitrage betting, due to the fact that you can lay outcomes as well as back them. Laying and backing makes the strategy a little more complicated, but can be very profitable.

Keep your betting accounts funded

You’ll need accounts with several bookmakers if you want to make money out of arbitrage betting, and it’s a very good idea to keep all your accounts funded. This way you’ll be able to place any bets required as soon as you highlight an arb, without having to spend time making deposits.

Form an arbing team

There are a number of advantages to arbing as part of a team. Collectively you will have more time to spend looking for arbs, and also more money to maximize your potential profits. You will benefit from having more betting accounts with bookmakers too, as each member of the team can open accounts in their name. This should help you to make accounts last longer before they are limited or closed.

Arbitrage Betting FAQ

Is arbitrage betting legal?

In some parts of the world it is illegal to bet on sports, which by extension would make arbitrage betting illegal. There are no specific laws making arbitrage betting illegal though, so if sports betting is legal where you live then so is arbing. Bookmakers don’t like it, and take measures to prevent it, but you’re not breaking the law.

Why don’t bookmakers like arbers?

Bookmakers don’t like arbers because they represent bad business for them. An arber will always lose a certain percentage of his bets with a bookmaker, because of betting on all the possible outcomes, but should make an overall profit in the long run. The bookmakers are aware of this, and they don’t want long term winners as customers. If they suspect a customer of arbing they will limit their account or even close it in order to protect their own profit margins.

How much money do I need?

There is no fixed amount of money required to use the arbitrage betting strategy. You can start with just a few dollars if you want, or you can start with thousands. A bigger bankroll will mean bigger potential profits, but please only ever bet with money that you can afford to lose. Arbitrage betting is a relatively safe way to bet when done properly, but things can go wrong and you can still lose money.

How much money can I make?

There is no way to accurately answer this question as it depends on a number of factors. The size of your bankroll, the number of arbs you can find, and the arbitrage percentage of those arbs will all affect your overall profitability. As a general rule you can expect to make returns of between 15% and 25% of your bankroll on a monthly basis, but this assumes that you have the time and ability to find arbs on a reasonably regular basis.

What sports can I bet on?

Technically you can bet on any sports using this strategy, but you’ll find the most arbs on sports where there are only two possible outcomes. Our opinion is that tennis is the best sport for arbitrage betting, but others may think differently. You can find arbing opportunities on US football, darts, snooker, basketball, and many other sports too.

Can I arb from the United States?

Arbitrage betting is certainly possible from the United States, but it’s more challenging than it is in many other parts of the world. This is because US bettors are somewhat limited in terms of the bookmakers that they have access to, and the difference in odds between US friendly bookmakers is not typically that great. This makes it a lot harder to find arbs, but it’s by no means impossible.

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Arbitrage opportunities 

Arbitrage opportunities 

In the previous lesson we presented in Example 2 a binomial market where it is possible to find an investment strategy that yields a positive profit with positive probability but without any downside risk. Such a strategy is commonly known as an arbitrage opportunity.

Before giving a formal definition of an arbitrage opportunity it is important to introduce some notation to clarify the concepts of trading strategy and most importantly self-financing trading strategy. A trading strategy is a process that for any time t specifies the quantity of shares in the money market account S0 (in our examples this corresponds to the amount of money in dollar currency) and the number of shares of the risky asset S held by the investor between times t-1 and t. We use the following notation for a trading strategy:

ts1 (8K) ts2 (8K)

It is important to notice that xt and yt could take negative values which corresponds to borrowing money and short selling the risky asset, respectively. For instance the strategy presented in Example 2 could be written as x1=1.5 and y1=-1.

With this notation ytSt-1 is the amount invested into the risky asset at time t-1, while ytSt is the resulting value at time t. We define the value of the portfolio (c,d) at time t, by

The term arbitrage is commonly referred to as the practice of taking advantage of the price differential between two markets by buying and selling assets. This section is mainly dedicated to making this statement precise. A market with asset prices that rule out these practices is called an arbitrage-free market. An investor that is engaged in an arbitrage opportunity is called an arbitrageur.

We will have a self-financing trading strategy if for any tgreater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to T-1, the value of the portfolios (xt, yt) and (xt+1, yt+1) at time t are the same. By the observation made in the beginning of the paragraph, this is equivalent to say that the fluctuations in the value of the portfolio are equal to the gains and losses resulting from asset pricing fluctuations only, i.e. there are no cash flows coming in or out.We define formally an arbitrage opportunity (see Tangent) as a self-financing trading strategy (x,y) such that the value of the initial portfolio (x1,y1) at time 0 is less than or equal to 0, but the value of the final portfolio (xT,yT) at time T is nonnegative with probability 1 and positive with positive probability.

In order to clarify the concepts and notation introduced above we present some examples.

Example 2 (continued)

The strategy presented in the previous lesson corresponds to x1=1.5 and y1=-1. Since we are facing a 1 period model the self-financing condition trivially holds. Observe that the value of the portfolio (x1,y1) at time 0 is

However, the value of the same portfolio at time 1 is either 1.5*1.1+(-1)*1.65=0 with probability 0.5 (i.e. if the Euro goes up) or 1.5*1.1+(-1)*1.2=0.45 with the same probability (i.e. if the Euro goes down). This is an example of an arbitrage opportunity in a one step binomial market. We say in this case that the market is not arbitrage-free.

Example 3

Suppose that today the price per share of Stock for General Motors Corp. (GM) is 10. For the next two days the rate of return is either 1% with probability 0.3 or -3% with probability 0.7. Suppose further that the rate of interest in the money market is 2%. We claim that this binomial market is not arbitrage-free. Consider the following trading strategy, (x,y) x1=x2u=x2d=10,y1=y2u=y2d=-1, where (x2u,y2u) and (x2d,x2d) are the portfolios when the price of the stock after the first day goes up and down, respectively. Since the portfolio does not change at any time this trading strategy is trivially self-financing. At time 0 the value of the portfolio (x1, y1) is 10*1+(-1)*10=0. If the price of the stock goes up on day 1 and day 2 then the value of the final portfolio (x2u,y2u) is equal to 10*(1.02)2+(-1)*10*(1.01)2=0.203. This event occurs with probability 0.3*0.3=0.09 (see Probability Review). If the price of the stock goes down one day but up the other day the value of the final portfolio (x2u,y2u) or (x2d,y2d) is equal to 10*(1.02)2+(-1)*10*(1.01)*(0.97)=0.607. Each of these events occurs with probability 0.3*0.7=0.21. Finally, if the price of the stock goes down on day 1 and day 2 the value of the final portfolio (x2d,y2d) is equal to 10*(1.02)2+(-1)*10*(0.97)2=0.995 This event occurs with probability 0.7*0.7=0.49. Hence, regardless what occurs during these two days the value of the final portfolio is positive and this trading strategy is an arbitrage opportunity. This is an example of a 2 step binomial market that is not arbitrage-free.

Note on self-financing strategies

So far in our examples the self-financing condition holds trivially. In order to better understand the concept, consider the market described in the previous Example and suppose that at time 0 the investor short sells one share of stock (i.e. borrows one share of stock from the broker). At time 1, if the price goes down he pays the stock back to the broker and buys one share in the market, and if the price goes up he does nothing. With our notation the strategy on the stock can be written as x1=10, y1=-1, y2u=-1, y2d=1. Intuitively in order to have a self-financing strategy, the strategy on the money account should balance off the fact that between times 1 and 2 the investor paid back stock to the broker and bought new stock in the market. Formally with the notation developed we have to find x2u and x2d such that the following holds

We notice that x2u=x1=10 and x2d=x1+(-2)*(10)*(0.97)/(1.02) is the unique solution to the system above.The reasoning above can be generalized and summarized by the following observation. Given any initial portfolio (x1, y1) and any strategy on the risky asset Sy2, …, yT, there exists a unique strategy on the money market, x2, …, xT, such that the trading strategy (x,y) is self-financing. This strategy can be found by successive use of the following formula

Activities

  1. Consider the market described in Example 3 but assume that the interest rate r=0. Given an arbitrary initial portfolio (x1, y1) and an arbitrary strategy on the risky asset Sy2, find a strategy on the money market, x2, such that the trading strategy (x,y) is self-financing.
    Hint: Recall that you have to consider two market states, one when the price of the stock goes up the first day and the other one when the price goes down. Hence, your strategy on the money market corresponds to two variables x2d and x2u which should be given in terms of x1, y1, y2d, y2u.
  2. For the strategy found in part a), write down explicitly the value of the initial portfolio and the possible values of the final portfolios in terms of x1, y1, y2d, y2u.
  3. Explain why it is impossible to find x1, y1, y2d, y2u such that the value of the initial portfolio is nonpositive but the value of the final portfolio is always nonegative and positive at least once. In other words, explain why this market is arbitrage-free.
    Hint: In order to prove this you will have to consider a system of inequalities and explain why it is not consitent, i.e. why there are no values of x1, y1, y2d, y2u that satisfy all the inequalities at the same time. At least one of the inequalities should be strict; this corresponds to the fact that in an arbitrage the value of the final portfolio is positive for at least one market state.

(Cornell Department of Mathematics )

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Saints and Foxes hard to separate at St Marys

 

On Saturday afternoon, Southampton host Leicester at St Marys, as the home side look for their league win of the season.

Southampton have started their Premier League campaign with a draw against Burnley before losing 2-1 at Everton last time out. The Saints have now won just two of their last 14 top-flight games. In fact, the team from the south coast have now won just three times in 27 league outings.

Mark Hughes side has been involved in a number of low scoring games of late in the top-flight, with under 2.5 goals scored in four of their last five league games.

The Saints have struggled for victories on home soil in the Premier League of late, winning just one of their last 12 matches. A big factor in that poor recent home record is their inability to find the net, as the home side has failed to score in four of their last six games on home soil.

However, one positive for the Saints is a decent home record against Leicester, as the home side has lost just one of the last seven games against the Foxes in the top-flight.

Leicester have experienced mixed fortunes in the Premier League so far this season, losing against Manchester United before a 2-0 win over Wolves last time out.

 

The win over Wolves was only their second top-flight victory in nine Premier Leagueoutings. Keeping the opposition from scoring has been a big problem for Leicester in recent Premier League games, as they have conceded at least twice in six of their last nine outings.

 

The Foxes recent away form in the league has been woeful, as the side from the Midlands have suffered four consecutive defeats on their travels in the top-flight.

Sportseconds predicts that these two teams will be hard to separate and that this game will end in a low scoring draw.

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Industry best price on Manchester City, Juventus, Bayern Munich, Celtic and PSG

This will be a popular pre-season accumulator and dabblebet are offering all customers a big price on the five red-hot favourites finishing on top

The accumulator of Manchester City, Juventus, Celtic, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain all to win their domestic titles will be a popular multiple for ante post punters.

The five selections are odds on and at the time of writing the best price available is just 23/10 (3.30).

Not only is this a huge price boost compared to the next best quote, but it’s available to all customers, not just new ones. Back it in one click here or check out the full range of pre-season odds that are being boosted across Europe.

Manchester City are already odds on to retain their Premier League title at 4/6 (1.67) and it’s easy to see why. Pep Guardiola’s side broke numerous records en route to topping the table last term including goals and total points.

Having already added Riyad Mahrez to their attacking options, the bookies aren’t expecting any of City’s rivals to be able to stop them securing back-to-back victories according to the prices.

Bayern Munich’s domination of the Bundesliga has been impressive. They’ve emerged victorious in the past six seasons and are just 1/8 (1.12) to extend that run to seven. Last season no one could get within 21 points of Bayern and the odds suggest it’s likely to be a similar story this time around.

Two of the selections in this multiple are even shorter in price, Celtic (1/12) and PSG (1/10) are red-hot favourites for the SPL and Ligue 1 crowns and given the lack of credible opposition in their respective divisions that’s totally understandable.

Finally, Juventus have secured the services of Cristiano Ronaldo are now just 4/9 (1.44) to top Serie A for an eighth consecutive year.

With the five-time Ballon d’Or winner arriving in Turin it’s tough to see any of their rivals stopping the Old Lady from extending their impressive domestic record and they’ve already been backed accordingly.

At 11/4 (3.75) this selection should prove to be one of the most popular pre-season selections with dabblebet given the solid looking nature of each side in their quest to retain their league titles.

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Saudi Arabia vs Egypt Preview and Predictions

 

On Monday afternoon, Saudi Arabia and Egypt go head-to-head in their last game of Group A at the World Cup.

The pair has both suffered elimination from the competition, having lost their first two group games against Russia and Uruguay, who have advanced to the knockout stages. The two teams will be looking to avoid finishing bottom of the group.

Saudi Arabia have enjoyed another poor World Cup campaign, conceding six goals and failing to find the net in the process. The Asian country has now lost five straight games in the group stages of the World Cup. >

In fact, they have now failed to win in 12 matches at the competition, suffering ten defeats in the process. Scoring goals have been a problem for the Saudi’s at the World Cup, as they have failed to score in seven of their last eight games in the group stages.

Egypt are participating in only their third World Cup and will be looking for their first-ever victory in the competition, as they have failed to win any of their six games in the tournament. A win would be a historical result for Hector Cuper’s team.

Like their opponents, the Pharaohs have also had trouble scoring goals at the World Cup, as the African team have scored just once in their last five appearances. The fact that star man Mohamed Salah was not fully fit hampered their chances of a successful World Cup, as Pharaoh’s boss Cuper has recently stated.

Egypt heads into this dead rubber on a winless run of eight games in international football. In fact, the African team suffered five defeats in those eight winless games.

Sportseconds predicts that this game will end in a low-scoring draw, which would mean Saudi Arabia finishing bottom of the group.