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2019 NBA PREDICTIONS-Monday, Nov. 11-Saturday, Nov. 16

Monday, Nov. 11

  7 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Timberwolves PK 51%
Pistons 49%
7:30 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Mavericks 36%
Celtics -3.5 64%
7:30 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Grizzlies 31%
Spurs -5 69%
  8 p.m.
Rockets -2.5 60%
Pelicans 40%
10:30 p.m.
Raptors 14%
Clippers -11 86%
10:30 p.m.
Jazz -9.5 82%
Warriors 18%

Tuesday, Nov. 12

  7 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Cavaliers 11%
76ers -13 89%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Thunder 43%
Pacers -1.5 57%
7:30 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Pistons 18%
Heat -9.5 82%
8 p.m.
Knicks 24%
Bulls -7 76%
9 p.m.
Hawks 7%
Nuggets -15.5 93%
  9 p.m.
Nets 17%
Jazz -10 83%
9 p.m.
Lakers PK 51%
Suns 49%
10 p.m.
Trail Blazers 41%
Kings -2 59%

Wednesday, Nov. 13

  7 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Grizzlies 47%
Hornets -0.5 53%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
76ers 48%
Magic -0.5 52%
7:30 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Clippers 32%
Rockets -4.5 68%
7:30 p.m.
Wizards 17%
Celtics -10 84%
8 p.m.
Spurs 22%
Timberwolves -7.5 78%
10 p.m.
Warriors 12%
Lakers -12.5 88%
10 p.m.
Raptors 35%
Trail Blazers -3.5 65%

Thursday, Nov. 14

  6 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Heat -2 58%
Cavaliers 42%
8 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Bulls 11%
Bucks -13 89%
8 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Mavericks -6.5 75%
Knicks 25%
8 p.m.
Clippers PK 51%
Pelicans 49%
9 p.m.
Hawks 16%
Suns -10.5 84%
10:30 p.m.
Nets 14%
Nuggets -11.5 86%

Friday, Nov. 15

  7 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Pistons -0.5 52%
Hornets 48%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Spurs 25%
Magic -7 75%
8 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Pacers 16%
Rockets -10.5 84%
8 p.m.
76ers -2.5 61%
Thunder 39%
8 p.m.
Jazz -5 68%
Grizzlies 32%
8 p.m.
Wizards 19%
Timberwolves -9 81%
10:30 p.m.
Celtics -5.5 70%
Warriors 30%
10:30 p.m.
Kings 20%
Lakers -9 80%

Saturday, Nov. 16

  6 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Nets 40%
Bulls -2.5 60%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Bucks -7 75%
Pacers 25%
7:30 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Hornets 35%
Knicks -3.5 65%
8 p.m.
Rockets 45%
Timberwolves -1 55%
8 p.m.
Pelicans 30%
Heat -5.5 70%
  8:30 p.m.
Trail Blazers 50%
Spurs PK 50%
8:30 p.m.
Raptors 22%
Mavericks -8 78%
10:30 p.m.
Hawks 9%
Clippers -14 91%
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2019 NFL PREDICTIONS-WEEK 11

Week 11

Thursday, Nov. 14

8:20 p.m. Eastern ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Pittsburgh 49%
Cleveland -0.5 51%

Sunday, Nov. 17

1 p.m. Eastern ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Atlanta 30%
Carolina -6 70%
1 p.m. ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Buffalo -4.5 65%
Miami 35%
1 p.m. ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Dallas -2 58%
Detroit 42%
1 p.m.
Denver 17%
Minnesota -11 83%
1 p.m.
Houston 40%
Baltimore -3 60%
1 p.m.
Jacksonville 43%
Indianapolis -2 57%
1 p.m.
New Orleans -8.5 78%
Tampa Bay 22%
1 p.m.
N.Y. Jets 48%
Washington -0.5 52%
4:05 p.m.
Arizona 13%
San Francisco -13 87%
4:25 p.m.
Cincinnati 15%
Oakland -12 85%
4:25 p.m.
New England -2 57%
Philadelphia 43%
8:20 p.m.
Chicago 30%
L.A. Rams -6 70%

Monday, Nov. 18

8:15 p.m. Eastern ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Kansas City -5.5 69%
L.A. Chargers 31%
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Warriors woe as Curry suffers broken hand

Golden State Warrior star Stephen Curry grimaces after he was injured in the second half of their 121-110 loss to the Phoenix Suns at Chase Center arena

The Golden State Warriors crumbling dynasty was dealt another jackhammer blow on Wednesday when superstar Stephen Curry suffered a broken hand against the Phoenix Suns.

Curry sustained the injury with 8:31 left in the third quarter as he drove to the rim and collided with Suns Aron Baynes in a one-sided 121-110 loss to Phoenix.

“Stephen Curry has a broken hand,” the Warrior public relations department confirmed in a tweet.

Baynes ended up landing awkwardly on top of Curry, who stayed on the ground for a few moments holding his wrist and then got up and tried to shake off the pain.

He attempted to stay in the game before the Warriors called a timeout and Curry walked over to the bench and left for the locker room with the Suns dominating on the scoreboard.

The loss of Curry for an extended period now leaves the Warriors as a shadow of their recent championship teams.

A mix of superstars, supporting cast, coaching and championship experience had made the Warriors the strong pre-season favourites for the past several seasons.

Even before Curry got hurt, Golden State was already without departed Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, who is injured and likely out for the entire season.

Their bid for a third straight championship and fourth in five years was dashed last season when they lost in the NBA finals in six games to the Toronto Raptors.

On Wednesday, Phoenix led 43-14 at the end of the first quarter and 72-46 at halftime.

Curry finished with nine points and six assists in 21 minutes of playing time.

Devin Booker scored a game-high 31 points and Baynes finished with 24 points and 12 rebounds for the surprising Suns who are off to a an impressive 3-2 start to the season.

Eric Paschall led the Warriors with 20 points.

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2019-20 NBA Predictions

Wednesday, Oct. 30

  7 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Bulls PK 50%
Cavaliers 50%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Timberwolves 27%
76ers -6 73%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Knicks 13%
Magic -11.5 87%
7:30 p.m.
Pistons 16%
Raptors -10 84%
7:30 p.m.
Pacers 37%
Nets -3.5 63%
  7:30 p.m.
Bucks 49%
Celtics PK 51%
8 p.m.
Rockets -7.5 76%
Wizards 24%
8 p.m.
Trail Blazers 31%
Thunder -5 69%
  10 p.m.
Hornets 21%
Kings -8.5 79%
10 p.m.
Clippers 28%
Jazz -6 72%
10:30 p.m.
Suns 33%
Warriors -4.5 67%

Thursday, Oct. 31

  7 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Heat -0.5 53%
Hawks 47%
9:30 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Nuggets -1 54%
Pelicans 46%
10:30 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Spurs 31%
Clippers -5 69%

Friday, Nov. 1

  7 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Cavaliers 21%
Pacers -8.5 79%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Rockets -4 66%
Nets 34%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Bucks -0.5 51%
Magic 49%
7:30 p.m.
Knicks 11%
Celtics -13 89%
8 p.m.
Pistons 27%
Bulls -6 73%
9:30 p.m.
Lakers 41%
Mavericks -2 59%
10 p.m.
Jazz -1.5 56%
Kings 44%
10:30 p.m.
Spurs 25%
Warriors -7 75%

Saturday, Nov. 2

  5 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Pelicans 30%
Thunder -5.5 70%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Nets 48%
Pistons -0.5 52%
7 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Nuggets -2.5 60%
Magic 40%
8 p.m.
Timberwolves -2 59%
Wizards 41%
8 p.m.
Suns 44%
Grizzlies -1.5 56%
8 p.m.
Raptors 34%
Bucks -4 66%
8:30 p.m.
Hornets 18%
Warriors -9.5 82%
10 p.m.
76ers -1 54%
Trail Blazers 46%

Sunday, Nov. 3

  5 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Bulls 31%
Pacers -5 69%
6 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Rockets -4.5 68%
Heat 32%
6 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Kings -2.5 61%
Knicks 39%
7 p.m.
Lakers -1 55%
Spurs 45%
7:30 p.m.
Mavericks -4.5 67%
Cavaliers 33%
9 p.m.
Jazz 42%
Clippers -2 58%

Monday, Nov. 4

  7 p.m. Eastern RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Pistons 36%
Wizards -3.5 64%
7:30 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Pelicans 39%
Nets -3 61%
8 p.m. RAPTOR SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Rockets -4 66%
Grizzlies 34%
8 p.m.
Bucks 45%
Timberwolves -1 55%
9 p.m.
76ers -2 57%
Suns 43%
10:30 p.m.
Trail Blazers 32%
Warriors -5 68%
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2019 NFL Predictions-Week 1

Week 1

Thursday, Sept. 5

FINAL ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Green Bay 36% 10
Chicago -4 64% 3

Sunday, Sept. 8

1 p.m. Eastern ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Atlanta 41%
Minnesota -2.5 59%
1 p.m. ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Baltimore -3 61%
Miami 39%
1 p.m. ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Buffalo 45%
N.Y. Jets -1.5 55%
1 p.m.
Kansas City -2.5 58%
Jacksonville 42%
1 p.m.
L.A. Rams -0.5 52%
Carolina 48%
1 p.m.
Tennessee 40%
Cleveland -3 60%
1 p.m.
Washington 23%
Philadelphia -8.5 77%
4:05 p.m.
Cincinnati 25%
Seattle -8 75%
4:05 p.m.
Indianapolis 28%
L.A. Chargers -6.5 72%
4:25 p.m.
Detroit -0.5 51%
Arizona 49%
4:25 p.m.
N.Y. Giants 26%
Dallas -7.5 74%
4:25 p.m.
San Francisco 45%
Tampa Bay -1.5 55%
8:20 p.m.
Pittsburgh 32%
New England -5 68%

Monday, Sept. 9

7:10 p.m. Eastern ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Houston 32%
New Orleans -5 68%
10:20 p.m. ELO POINT SPREAD WIN PROB. SCORE
Denver 49%
Oakland -0.5 51%
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If Vegas Predicts Your NFL Team For Six Wins, You May Be In Luck

We’ve already published our Elo projections, and we think they’re the best we’ve ever produced for the NFL, but there will still be lots of misses to grouse about come January. Forecasting a sport as luck-driven as the NFL is rough that way.

It raises the question: How good are betting markets at predicting team wins? To find out, I got my hands on a tranche of win prediction data stretching back to 1989, courtesy of Sports Odds History, and checked how well Vegas preseason win totals predict actual team wins. While Vegas overall does a good job identifying good and bad teams, it turns out that at the lower end of the range of projected wins, Vegas predictions don’t seem particularly well calibrated — though the confidence intervals at the lower end are large because of the small sample size, so the results aren’t statistically significant.

Projected win totals of six and fewer undersell teams’ prospects by about a win on average, with the exception of teams forecast for five wins.

Win totals don’t change as frequently as the moneyline odds, so we probably shouldn’t take win totals at face value — at least for teams with low projected wins. What does this mean for non-bettors? It should be decent news for the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and Washington Redskins — teams that both Elo and Vegas have pegged for six wins in 2019 — since we should be more bullish on their chances than we currently are.

Optimism for these probable cellar dwellers might feel forced. But we should fight the urge toward overconfidence, especially in the face of history. A few of these teams will end up surprising us — in a good way — at the end of the year for reasons inscrutable to us now.

Which NFL teams might beat expectations?

Average actual wins (1989-2018) by Vegas preseason expected wins, and the 2019 teams at each number of expected wins

WINS  
EXPECTED ACTUAL 2019 TEAMS
11.0 10.2 New England
10.5 9.9 Kansas City, L.A. Rams, New Orleans
10.0 8.8 Philadelphia
9.5 9.0 Chicago, Green Bay, L.A. Chargers
9.0 8.5 Cleveland, Dallas, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Pittsburgh
8.5 8.9 Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, Seattle
8.0 7.4 Jacksonville, San Francisco, Tennessee
7.5 7.6 Carolina
7.0 6.9 Buffalo, Denver, N.Y. Jets
6.5 6.4 Detroit, Tampa Bay
6.0 6.7 Cincinnati, N.Y. Giants, Oakland, Washington
5.0 4.6 Arizona, Miami

SOURCES: SPORTSODDSHISTORY.COM, GREG GUGLIELMO, PINNACLE, BETFAIR, WILLIAM HILL, BET365, BETONLINE

Well … maybe not the Bengals. Not only is Cincinnati saddled with an injured A.J. Green, who appears to be out until around Week 8, the Bengals have an offense that is bereft of top talent at nearly every position. Cincinnati replaced head coach Marvin Lewis after 16 seasons of on-again, off-again contention and turned instead to Zac Taylor, a coach best known for being friends with L.A. Rams wunderkind Sean McVay. The hope must be that Taylor can revitalize the career of quarterback Andy Dalton, who sports a middling career yards per attempt of 7.2 and is one of the few starting quarterbacks who Vegas believes wouldn’t move a line if he were to be replaced in the lineup. The defense doesn’t offer a compelling reason for optimism: The Bengals ranked 28th in defensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) last season. Perhaps we should view that as a reason to be bullish on their prospects in 2019 simply due to regression, since defensive performance year to year isn’t terribly stable. If that seems like a bridge too far, magic might be the answer: Taylor may give lip service to the notion that he isn’t trying to be like his mentor McVay, but McVay’s brand of QB sorcery seems like the best hope for the Bengals to crest seven wins this year.

The Giants are more interesting. After a promising preseason performance by first-round pick Daniel Jones, New York fans are clamoring for a change of the guard at quarterback. As big of a reach as many believed Jones to be, I still see him as a better use of first-round draft capital than “generational talent” Saquon Barkley. Hailed as a potential savior and the missing piece for Eli Manning’s final championship push, Barkley helped the Giants improve from a terrible three-win team in 2017 to a merely bad five-win unit in 2018.

The Giants were second-worst in the league on Expected Points Added per play on first-down play-action passes after adding Saquon to the backfield,1 and prospects for a bounceback in play-action efficiency seem bleak. After trading all-world wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to the Browns, the Giants lost free agent acquisition Golden Tate to a four-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs and their expected No. 3 wideout Corey Coleman to a season-ending ACL injury. Their best hope for a productive season may rest in ownership’s willingness to bench Manning for good this time.

The other team to somehow accumulate negative value on first-down play action was Oakland. In what seems to be a pattern for teams at the bottom of the win total forecast, Vegas sees Derek Carr as a quarterback worth just 1 point to the spread. The stats back up that view. Carr’s career yards per attempt is, at 6.7, below league average, and his best season as judged by QBR is an anemic 54.6. His weapons are improved from a year ago, but they are volatile. New Raiders wideout Antonio Brown sat out of practice because he wasn’t allowed to wear a helmet the NFL deems dangerous and is now likely to be suspended for some period of time, and Tyrell Williams is a boom or bust weapon who likes to be targeted deep — something Carr may be reluctant to do given his career average depth of target of just 7.7 yards. Meanwhile “Hard Knocks” captured head coach Jon Gruden disparaging “all the football stats and all the fantasy bullshit” in favor of running backs that will “BOOF” the opposing team in pass protection. Of all the six-win teams, Oakland may be the most unpredictable — and that unpredictability could manifest itself in good ways, as well as bad. Brown’s antics could end with a fashionable and safe new helmet, Carr might be coaxed into throwing the deep ball to a talented field stretcher, and Gruden might use rookie running back Josh Jacobs optimally, leading to wins we simply can’t foresee at this point.

The final team projected for six wins in 2019 is Washington, a team that somehow came to the determination that Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson were better choices than Colin Kaepernick to take over for quarterback Alex Smith when his 2018 season — and perhaps his career — ended with a gruesome leg injury.

In the draft, Washington team president Bruce Allen added Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins in the first round but then failed to surround him with receiving weapons. Jamison Crowder left via free agency, former first-round bust Josh Doctson was released at the end of the preseason and tight end Jordan Reed suffered another concussion heading into Week 1. Their current starting wide receivers are third-round pick Terry McLaurin — also from Ohio State — and Paul Richardson.

The outlook at running back is brighter with the return of Derrius Guice from an ACL tear that derailed his rookie season, but there is little evidence to suggest they will put him in advantageous spots to run the ball. With the ageless, tackle-breaking cyborg Adrian Peterson in 2018, Washington lined up against neutral or stacked boxes on first-and-10 or second and long 174 times, decided they liked the look and ran right into the scrum 72 percent of the time. But if Washington can flip the script on downs tailor-made for passing and eke out some yards where they should come easy, the duo of Guice and Peterson could be enough to protect current starter Case Keenum or rookie Haskins while he learns on the job — and possibly beat the team’s six-win projection.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

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Lightning´s Nikita Kucherov caps off season with Hart Trophy

Tampa Bay Lightning star Nikita Kucherov has been crowned the NHL’s most valuable player after winning the Hart Memorial Trophy.

The 26-year-old Lightning winger, who led the NHL with 128 points for the season, beat out Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby and Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid to the award.

Kucherov is the first Russian-born player to win the Hart Trophy since Alex Ovechkin in 2013 and the second Lightning player ever to win it (Martin St. Louis, 2004).

“I’d like to thank my team-mates, coaches, our trainers as well as our ownership and the Tampa Bay Lightning organisation for everything you do for us, for supporting us,” Kucherov said. “A big part of this award goes to you guys.”

Kucherov dominated the voting, collecting 164 of 171 first-place votes to finish with 1,677 points, ahead of Crosby (739) and McDavid (465) on Wednesday.

The 2011 second-round pick also won the Art Ross Trophy for leading the NHL in scoring and the Ted Lindsay Award for most outstanding player, as voted by the players.

It was a fitting end to Kucherov’s season as he was the best player on the ice from start to finish. He had 38 multi-point games for Tampa Bay – the most in the NHL since the 2006-07 season (Crosby, 38).

He was just the fourth player to eclipse 120 points since 2005-06 and his 128 points were the most in a single season since Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr scored more in 1995-96.

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Champions recognise champions – Curry appreciates LeBron support after downing Rockets

Stephen Curry expressed his gratitude for the support of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade after he led the Golden State Warriors past the Houston Rockets and into the Western Conference Finals.

Warriors star Curry was held scoreless in the opening two quarters of Game 6 against the Rockets at Toyota Center on Friday but produced a sensational second half, racking up 33 points to inspire the defending NBA champions – who were without the injured Kevin Durant – to a 118-113 victory and a 4-2 series success.

That haul represented Curry’s best since the opening game of the playoffs, and comprehensively silenced any doubters.

And Los Angeles Lakers star James, who faced Curry in each of the past four NBA Finals during his time with the Cleveland Cavaliers, voiced his backing of his fellow three-time champion, as did retired Miami Heat legend Wade.

James posted on Twitter: “NEVER underestimate the heart of a Champion!!!!”

Wade added on his account: “Y’all better stop disrespecting @StephenCurry30 just because he’s a team first guy and is willing to sacrifice in moments doesn’t mean he’s not still a beast.”

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Rockets owner: We´re going to win championships with James Harden

The Houston Rockets may have exited the NBA playoffs at the hands of the Golden State Warriors for the fourth time in five years, but owner Tilman Fertitta insists they will win titles with James Harden on their roster.

Stephen Curry’s 33 points on Friday helped the Warriors to a 118-113 victory in Game 6, which sealed a 4-2 series success for Golden State and sent them through to the Western Conference Finals.

The Warriors, seeking a third straight NBA title, have proved a thorn in Houston’s side in recent seasons and Fertitta was quick to praise Steve Kerr’s men for once again getting the better of the Rockets.

However, he is also adamant that 2017-18 MVP Harden can end a title drought for his franchise that dates back to the 1994-95 season.

“They kicked our a** on our home court,” Fertitta told reporters.

“They beat us by 10 points in the fourth quarter. It’s unacceptable. We just have to be better.

View image on Twitter

“I know that we’re going to rise to the occasion and our time is going to come. James is 30 years old [in August]. Michael [Jordan] didn’t win his first championship until [28]. Hakeem [Olajuwon] didn’t win his first championship until [31].

“I can promise you, we’re going to win some championships with James Harden, because we are not going to sit here. We will go to battle every year.

“We’re going to have a strong offseason, and we’re going to do whatever we can to be a better team. We are not going to sit on our hands, I can promise you that.”

Houston had lost the first two games of the series but brought it back to 2-2 before losing Game 5 on Wednesday, when they led in the fourth quarter only to be defeated 104-99 at Oracle Arena.

Fertitta felt that was a missed chance but maintains belief that his team will one day avenge all of their playoff losses to the Warriors.

“They showed why they’re the champions,” he added.

“We’re gonna learn from it, and we’re gonna come back next year, and we’re gonna kick their a** at some point. I can promise you that.

“We should have stepped on their throat the other night and cut their throat. It’s not, ‘Let’s make a few shots and win.’ It’s step on their throat and let’s take it back to Houston and end it in six.”